Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
